Fall of Syria’s Bashar Assad is a strategic deplete to Iran and Russia, mavens say


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The great faint of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has despatched trauma waves all through the area and past, marking a dramatic turning level then just about 14 years of civil struggle. Assad’s rule, lengthy sustained via Russia and Iran, has come to an finish, resignation his former consumers scrambling to govern the fallout. The results for those two powers, in addition to for the wider regional and international ground, are profound.

Russia’s involvement in Syria was once by no means as regards to Assad, mavens say. Securing a foothold within the Center East was once a cornerstone of Moscow’s technique, with the Khmeimim Wind Bottom and Tartus naval facility serving as necessary property for projecting energy. Alternatively, with Assad now long gone, Russia’s property in Syria are in peril.

Rebekah Koffler, strategic army perception analyst and writer of “Putin’s Playbook,” emphasised the virtue. “Syria has been a key theater in the broader proxy conflict between Russia and the U.S. losing Assad represents a strategic defeat for Russia, costing them critical bases in the Middle East and further stretching their military resources as they continue fighting in Ukraine.”

TRUMP RESPONDS AFTER REBELS OVERTAKE SYRIA, OUSTING LONGTIME DICTATOR: ‘ASSAD IS GONE’

Syrian opposition opponents take away a Syrian flag from an authentic development in Salamiyah, east of Hama, Syria, on Saturday Dec. 7, 2024. (AP Picture/Ghaith Alsayed)

Ksenia Svetlova, a senior non-resident fellow on the Atlantic Council, described the fallout as, “Russia has been exposed for what it really is- a power that overpromises but underdelivers. They came to Syria with grand ambitions, but apart from helping Assad survive through joint efforts with Iran and Hezbollah, they achieved little. The post-war reconstruction never began, and with Russia now focused on Ukraine, Syria became a secondary priority. Now, Russia has abandoned Assad, revealing itself as an unreliable partner.”

She stated this failure sends a message to Moscow’s allies. “In the Middle East, Russia now looks weak compared to the United States. Syrians are stunned that Moscow left ‘Baby Assad,’ as the regime opponents call him, to collapse, while the U.S. has demonstrated strength by standing firmly with Israel in its time of need.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin, proper, and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad discuss with the Hmeymim Wind Bottom in Latakia Province, Syria, on Dec. 11, 2017. (RUSSIA-FLIGHTS/ Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/ by means of REUTERS/Report Picture)

The autumn of Assad highlights Syria’s function as a battleground within the U.S.- Russia proxy struggle, as Koffler defined. “Before Assad’s fall, President Trump reportedly called Putin to de-escalate tensions, but instead, Putin doubled down by escalating his nuclear doctrine, signaling a refusal to back down. Now that Assad, one of Putin’s key allies, has lost Syria, the balance of power shifts dramatically. With this loss, Trump may have newfound leverage over Putin, as losing Syria undermines Russia’s influence in the region and strains its already overstretched resources. This could open a path for Trump to negotiate the end of the war in Ukraine from a stronger position, leveraging Putin’s setbacks in Syria.”

IRAN

Iran’s spiritual chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, proper, meets Syrian chief Bashar al-Assad in Tehran, Iran, on Feb. 25, 2019. (IRANIAN LEADER PRESS OFFICE / HANDOUT/Anadolu Company/Getty Photographs)

For Iran, Assad’s fall trade in a calamitous deplete to its long-term regional technique. Syria was once a an important hyperlink in Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance,” connecting Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon and enabling the smuggling of guns around the area by means of a hall stretching from Iran thru Iraq and Syria into Lebanon.

“This is an unprecedented, historic moment,” Svetlova stated. “The Iranian ‘Ring of Fire,’ meticulously built by Qassem Soleimani, has been shattered. If Soleimani was still alive, he would be horrified to see the collapse of his life’s work.”

The weakening of Hezbollah all the way through its struggle with Israel additional exacerbated Assad’s vulnerability, resignation the regime with out important assistance at the farmland. Hezbollah have been a key drive aiding Assad’s military all the way through the civil struggle, however then maintaining fat losses to Israeli forces, it would not serve ample assistance. In the meantime, Iran avoided sending supplementary troops to strengthen Assad.

SYRIAN DICTATOR BASHAR ASSAD FLEES INTO EXILE AS ISLAMIST REBELS CONQUER COUNTRY 

Rise up opponents arise similar the Iranian embassy with a torn poster of Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and past due Iran’s Innovative Guards’ supremacy commander Qassem Soleimani then Syrian rebels introduced that they have got ousted President Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, Syria, Dec. 8, 2024. (REUTERS/Firas Makdesi)

An Iranian journalist, talking anonymously to Fox Information Virtual from Iran, reduce sunny at the interior response in Iran. “The majority of Iranians are celebrating Assad’s downfall. For years, Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard funneled resources into preserving the Axis of Resistance, draining the Iranian people’s wealth. Now, with Assad gone, there is hope that Iran’s oppressive influence in the region will weaken. This is a moment of joy for those who have long opposed the regime’s policies.”

“The Iranian people and the regime are worlds apart in their perspectives,” stated every other Iranian dissident who spoke anonymously to Fox Information Virtual from the rustic. “While the regime has largely watched Assad’s downfall from the sidelines, likely due to its own internal weaknesses or strategic agreements, the Iranian people are celebrating. There’s a wave of hope and joy spreading across social media, fueled by the idea that revolutions in countries aligned with the Islamic Republic – past or present – could spark a domino effect. For many, Assad’s collapse represents the weakening of the resistance axis and a glimmer of possibility for change within Iran itself.”

ISLAMIST REBELS IN SYRIA CATCH ASSAD, PUTIN, IRAN REGIMES OFF GUARD GIVING US NEW MIDEAST HEADACHE

Rebels in northwest Syria seized army automobiles belonging to the regime alongside the course towards Kweris Airport within the japanese nation-state of Aleppo on Dec. 2, 2024. (Rami Alsayed/NurPhoto by means of APRami Alsayed/NurPhoto by means of AP)

Time Assad’s fall creates alternatives for a unused series within the Center East, it additionally gifts important dangers. The shock assault on Assad’s forces, led via the Salafi-jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) beneath the command of Abu Mohammed al-Golani, underscores the complexity of the status. HTS, Syria’s maximum robust riot faction, developed from the al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Entrance however claimed to sever ties with the gang in 2016. It left-overs designated a 15 May Organization via the U.S. and alternative countries.

“Who will fill the void?” Koffler warned. “The rebels aren’t good people – they’re the same extremists we’ve seen before. While they may appear on Western media wearing a green T-shirt and giving polished interviews, the reality is different. Removing one dictator often leads to even worse outcomes, as we saw in Iraq and Libya.”

Avner Golov, former senior director of Israel’s Nationwide Safety Council and vice chairman at Thoughts Israel, believes there’s a possible upside for each the U.S. and Israel.

Combatants input the Rashidin district at the outskirts of Aleppo on their motorbikes with smoke billowing within the background all the way through combating on Nov. 29, 2024, as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham jihadists and allied factions proceed their offensive within the Aleppo province towards govt forces. (Picture via BAKR ALKASEM/AFP by means of Getty Photographs)

“The collapse of Assad’s regime underscores the failures of Russia and Iran as powers in the region. Meanwhile, the U.S. has shown its strength by standing with Israel and choosing the winning side. This is a critical opportunity for Washington to leverage its position and build a coalition of moderate Arab states – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan, and Egypt – with Israel, to counter both Sunni and Shia Islamist forces. This coalition could provide a stabilizing force in the region and counter the growing influence of extremist groups.”

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Golov stated there are ramifications for Beijing. “China has been largely absent in the Middle East conflicts, focusing instead on its global economic goals. In contrast, Russia has proven itself unreliable in Syria, retreating while the U.S. supported its allies. This presents a unique opportunity for America to strengthen its position in the Middle East amid the collapse of the Iranian axis.”


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